We have good days and bad days at The Pipe. Even on good days the waves break further out or closer in, depending on the size of the set. On the good days the break can get crowded. You need a strategy and a decision process to get your waves.

 

Strategy

My strategy is to surf the pushing tide to just over full, to sit far out to pick up the bigger, long-board waves and to leave the water when it becomes dangerously crowded. I paddle to the backline and wait.

Decision making

My decision process is similar to everyone else out there. When the sets come in I check the size, where the peak is and whether it’s tending left or right. I pick a wave. I paddle to the sweet position. I check if anyone on my inside is also paddling for the wave. Depending on all this I may paddle out and over, stay where I am or I turn and paddle like crazy. When it all works I feel the wave pick me up and I jump up and ride. When it all comes together it is magnificent.

I have good days and frustrating days. When I adopted an explicit decision making process I started having more good days. Specifically when I adopted the work of this guy:

boyd2This is John Boyd, USAF air ace, pilot trainer and military strategist. In considering the air-combat statistics in the Korean War he reflected on how the US pilots achieved a 10:1 superiority in kill ratio. The US F-86 Sabres were slower than the Soviet-built MiGs and in some respects less manoeuvrable. But, he realised, the cockpit and canopy design of the US aircraft afforded the pilots better visibility. Because they could see better, they could manage each engagement to their advantage. Based on this insight he developed an air-combat decision-making process:

  • Observe
  • Orientate
  • Decide
  • Act

 OODA

This is the secret mechanism in plain sight. This may seem like common sense to you. Don’t we all do this? Isn’t this just common-sense?  Well, maybe.

But maybe not!

We tend to excel in different parts of the process. Let’s dive into the world of stereotypes. Drivers love deciding. Doers act. Academics love observing and orientating (the talk shop). For this process to work we have to do it often.  and in this case quantity carries it’s own quality.  By deciding often we can rethink bad decisions and change.  Sometimes we can’t.  When you are going ‘over the falls’ it is too late to decide you don’t want to go for that wave.  But you can learn to choose your waves more carefully.

John Boyd found he could hit his adversary with ‘fast transients’. These sudden, unexpected, radical manoeuvres forced them to respond to him. In this way he shaped the engagement, forcing his adversary to play by the rules he set. As pilot trainer he won every single training engagement. He was able to defeat any adversary in mock-combat, within 40 seconds.

He later applied the process to military strategy. This became known as ‘The OODA Loop’. And ‘OODA’ is turning up more and more in Business literature.

The cycle can be shown like this:

OODA-SW

Observe

Collect the facts. What is the brutal truth in the current situation? What does that wave look like? Will it go left or right? Can you ride it? Who else is in the water? Are they positioning themselves?

 

Orientate

You orientate yourself in the light of the facts, your culture, your values and how you operate, the skills you have at your disposal, your experience. You take all of this information, analyse it and synthesise a view of the current situation. And here is a hint: if you are operating in a team this means discourse. It means dialogue, which in the best teams means conflict.

 

Decide

You make a decision. You go with what you have, knowing that you will cycle through the process quick enough again to correct a bad decision.

 

Act

All the information, strategy orientation and decisions are worthless without action.  Paddle like mad and jump up. Create the product. Set up the meeting.

 

Do it again

Go straight into observation mode. How is this working for you and what has changed?

Use OODA as required

The OODA loop can be applied at all levels of decision making. You can apply the thinking:

  • In the immediate cut and thrust of the engagement, in the air, at the negotiating table, even on the waves.
  • In your daily stand-up meeting with your team to set the tone for the day.
  • In your weekly execution meetings to action your strategy.
  • In your monthly strategy direction setting sessions.
  • In your quarterly strategy review.
  • And certainly, with all of the information you have collected over the year, in your annual strategy and planning session.

 

How well do you apply OODA?

Of the four steps, where are you strong and in which do you want to increase your ability?